If the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ended tomorrow, one verdict is already clear: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would walk away stronger, while U.S. President Donald Trump would be left to manage the shock to global markets and to Persian Gulf allies who have borne the heaviest costs.

For Netanyahu, analysts say, the war has redrawn Israel’s political map on his terms, pivoting attention away from Gaza and toward Iran, where national consensus is strongest and his security and economic credentials resonate most.

For Trump, it has done the reverse: trapping him in a conflict with no clear exit, exposing his Gulf Arab allies to spiraling risks, and undercutting the economic storyline that powered his return to office.