With conflicts raging in some 50 countries, tariff wars becoming the new (abnormal) norm, and global economic growth falling to its slowest pace in generations, there seems to be little to cheer about as we enter 2026. The only certainty is that we are living with mounting uncertainty. The sole realistic prediction might be continued unpredictability.
Underlying the tensions and turmoil of our times are three unmistakable shifts that are creating a new but still unsettled terrain: from a unipolar world to a multipolar one; from a rules-based order to a power-based one; and from a politics informed by economic openness to one that insists on protectionism, mercantilism, and industrial policies that emphasize domestic security. Politics is now driving economics, rather than vice versa.
There are different views about how the world will change in 2026 and beyond. As we move away from the certainties of a unipolar world, will we see a return to great-power competition and to spheres of influence, the emergence of a “one world, two systems” arrangement dominated by China and the United States, or simply a period of chaotic disorder?
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