Early last Monday, a burst of concentrated trades set off a week in which Wall Street and Washington were abuzz about the possibility that insiders have been using early knowledge of President Donald Trump’s decision making on Iran to lock in big profits.
The moves, worth billions, hit the futures markets on Monday morning, just minutes before a social media post about the Middle East from Trump sent crude prices tumbling and equities soaring.
In the conversation that followed, much of the scrutiny fell on the new prediction market platforms that have made it possible to bet directly on geopolitical developments, some with less oversight than others. The episode came amid a months-long push in Congress to rein in the nascent industry, with Democrats introducing new bills and the first Senate Republicans signing on to legislation that would impose restrictions.
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